Posted on: October 1, 2008 6:27 pm
 

Time to rebound

I had my first questionable week last week, Selvin Young and Trent Edwards let me down, so I am ready to get right into this week.  Here are some waiver wire guys that you need to target.

Kyle Orton - Orton has put up 22 and 17 points in my leagues in the last two weeks, the 17 points against a very tough Eagles defense.  Orton's three touchdowns doubled the number that had been given up by the Eagles up to that point and he now has five td's in the last two games.  This week, Orton faces a Detroit team that gives up 227 yards and two touchdowns a game.  I would consider starting him this week if you need a bye week replacement.

Matt Jones - He has at least five catches in every game this season and has developed into David Garrard's number one receiving option.  He could start to lose catches and opportunities as Jerry Porter gets into the groove in Jacksonville, but I expect him to have at least two or three more good games.  Remember that Porter is a career underachiever and probably will do nothing this year.  You definitely want him starting when Jacksonville plays Denver week 6.

Warrick Dunn - The old man just keeps running.  He has 197 yards this year and 31 fantasy points.  He is the 34th ranked rusher right now, and seems to be a mainstay in the Tampa Bay offense.  As always, he ususally will not get you touchdowns, but he gets yards when he gets carries.  He is worth owning in all leagues.

QB's

Start - Jon Kitna
He is playing a Bears team that is giving up 246 yards a game through the air and has also learned how to play offense.  I expect the Lions will get down early and have to throw most of the second half.  That could be good news for Kitna.  He started the season with two consecutive 250 yard, two touchdown performances.  I expect him to get that. 

Sit - David Garrard
The Steelers are very stingy against the pass, giving up only 162 yards a game and three touchdowns on the season, and are going to be motivated to destory the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  Garrard only had 9 completions and two picks in that game, and I would expect him to find a tough time again this week.

RB's

Start - Steve Slaton
Indy is horrible against the run without Bob Sanders.  End of story.  If you want a little more, Slaton has scored 17 fantasy points in each of the last two weeks against pretty stout defenses, including rushing for 118 yards against the 8th best rush defense in the league, the Titans.  I expect Houston to give Indy a steady does of Slaton.

Sit - Clinton Portis
This might sound like I am just taking whoever is playing Philly and telling you to sit that runningback, and that is the case.  I wanted to make the point of how dominant the Eagles have been against the run again this week, just to make sure it sinks in.  They are giving up 54 yards a game and have given up one touchdown this season to Stephen Jackson, 17th rated fantasy rusher, Marion Barber, 4th rated, Willie Parker, 9th, and Matt Forte, 8th.  What else is there to know?

WR's

Start - Amani Toomer
The well dressed one should have a good game against a Seattle team that was burned by J.T. O' Sullivan the last time they played against a real offense (St. Louis does not count), and he becomes and even more attractive option with Plaxico Burress suspended.  I expect him to get 80 yards and touchdown.

Sit - Donald Driver
Driver and Aaron Rodgers do not sem to have the same type of rythem and comfort with each other that Driver enjoyed with Farve, and it is showing on the field.  He was held to just eight yards on one catch, the first once catch game for him since 2004.  I expect his slow start to continue against an underated Atlanta pass defense this week.

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Posted on: September 23, 2008 9:44 pm
Edited on: October 1, 2008 5:32 pm
 

OH NO, BYE WEEKS

The bye weeks are the bane of a fantasy football players existence, and they are upon us once again.  It creates a interesting situation that tests the benches of all the players in the league.  Some owners who are 3-0 can turn into 3-3 real quick without depth on the bench.  On top of that, there are a multitude of injuries affecting bench depth.  This is the time where good fantasy players can win their league with solid waiver wire strategy.  These are three guys that you should consider picking up.

LeRon McClain - He rushed 17 times for 66 yards against Cleveland and scored two touchdowns, with "starter" Willis McGahee playing.  This could be bad news for McGahee owners, but a great situation if you can pick up McClain.  He looks to be the goal-line back in Baltimore, but could develop into more in the coming weeks if he can continue to out perform McGahee.  He is owned in 13 percent of CBS leagues.

Brady Quinn - Derek Anderson is on a short leash in Clevland and Quinn has already seen more reps in practice.  We have seen that the Browns are not squemish about changing quarterbacks early in the season, even in the middle of a game, and Quinn's time might be at hand.  If he does get the start, he will be handed the rains of an offense that dominated last season, and he could post big numbers.  He is only owned in 12 percent of CBS leagues.

Chansi Stuckey - It is time to pick Stuckey up.  He has raised his reception numbers in every game and seems to be becoming more a part of the passing offense.  He has a touchdown in every game and seems to be a favorite target of Brett Favre in the red zone.  He is only owned in 40 percent of CBS leagues.

QB

Start - Trent Edwards
Edwards threw for a career high 279 yards last week against Oakland and goes into his great match-up with St. Louis this week on a high.  He has progressed well through the first couple of weeks of the season, and I think the Rams will provide the perfect match-up for him to explode.  I think he will get 300 yards and 2 touchdowns.

------197 yards, 1 TD, 1 2pt, 1 pick - 13 points

Sit - Ben Roethlisberger
He is hurt going into the game against Baltimore, who has only allowed 185 yards through the air in two games with four interceptions.  Big Ben will also be without Willie Parker and will have to rely on rookie Reshard Mendenhall for the brunt of the rushing attack.  That is not a good combination.  I expect 150 yards and a couple picks.

------191 yards, 1 TD and a pick - 11 points

RB

Start - Selvin Young
Selvin Young has only has one touchdown this year and is caught in a weird running back trio in Denver.  He has, however, been receiving more carries every week and has been the most effective back for the Broncos.  He faces a Kansas City team this week that has allowed 612 yards on the ground this year.  The Broncos should build up a big lead early and be running the ball most of the second half, so I expect Young to get at least 20 carries.  At his current 6.9 yard average, that is 138 yards.  I do not really expect that much, but I do think he can get 100 yards and maybe a touchdown.

------49 yards - 4 points

Sit - Matt Forte
Number do not lie, and Philly has faced Steven Jackson, Marion Barber and Willie Parker and only allowed 137 yards on the ground.  That is not good news for Forte, especially since he does not have a very good offense around him. I would expect only about 50 yards from him.

------43 rush, 42 rec - 8 points

WR

Start - Lee Evans
Lee Evans has caught four passes in every game this season but has yet to find the end-zone.  I expect that to change this week against a bad Rams team.  I think he gets 100 yards and a touchdown.

------88 yards, 1 td, 1 2pt. - 16 points

Sit - Braylon Edwards
He has been a big disappointment this season, and I think it continues for at least one more week.  The Browns face a Cincinnati defense that actually been pretty good against the pass this season, but that could be because they played Baltimore and Tennessee.  They still played well against the Giants in the first half, and the Browns offense has been bad enough to warrant sitting Edwards.  I expect less than 50 yards.

------22 yards, 1 td - 8 points
 
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Posted on: September 17, 2008 4:24 pm
Edited on: September 23, 2008 9:11 am
 

Starts and Sits for Week 3

Week 3 is the turning point of the NFL season.  Only three NFL teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3, making this week a must win for the 0-2 teams.  However, the prospects are different for fantasy owners.  There are plenty of quality players that are available to pick up or make a trade for. 

David Patten is a starter on a quality offense for at least the next five weeks and is only owned in 55 percent of Sportsline leagues.  At Washington last week he caught five passes for 55 yards.  That is a quality day for a number three or four wide receiver, and he had that game on the day when the Saints offense struggled.  I think he does nothing but get better.

Brandon Jackson is owned in only 45 percent of CBS leagues but has been more effective than an injured Ryan Grant and had a much better game against Detroit.  Remember that Jackson was the starter last year before he got hurt and was thought to be the future of the organization.  He is a good sleeper candidate and could be the starter if Grant lays another egg.

J.T. O'Sullivan put up nice numbers against a decent Seattle team.  He is going to be a good bye week replacement for teams with top-line QBs.  He plays Arizona in week 10, Tony Romo's bye week, New Orleans week 4, during Indy's week, and Seattle again week 8 during Jay Cutlers bye.  He should do nothing but get better in Martz's offense and I think he could be a good bench player for you.  He is only owned in 52 percent of CBS leagues.

Lets get to this week Starts and Sits.

QB

Start - J.T. O'Sullivan
He tore up the Seattle secondary and will look to do the same this week to the Detroit team that Aaron Rodgers shred last week.  He does not make mistakes and Martz has a tendency to create offenses that allow mediocre quarterbacks to put up hugh fantasy numbers.  Jon Kitna threw for over four thousand yards last year.  I expect O'Sullivan to throw for 275 yards and 2 touch downs.

-------189 yards 2 touchdowns 32 rush - 22 points

Sit - Donovan McNabb
I look for a bit of a letdown for all the Eagles players.  They had a heartbreaking loss in a big game on Monday, and, on top of that, Pittsburgh's suffocating defense that gave up only two fantasy points to Derek Anderson last week is coming into town on a short week.  I do not like McNabb's chances this week and think he could have a bad game.  I would not expect more than 200 yards from McNabb this week.

-------196 yards 1 touch int - 11 points

RB

Start - LenDale White
Lendale White has been overshadowed by Chris Johnson this year, but he still carried the ball eighteen times last week and is a still a big part of the offense.  This week the Titans face a Texans team he had good success against last year.  In two games against Houston he ran for 164 yards and two touchdowns.  I expect him to get at least one touchdown this week and 60 yards.

-------49 yards 2 touchdowns - 16 points

Sit - Willie Parker
Philly did a pretty good job of bottling up Marion Barber for most of the game last week and held him to 63 yards on 18 carries.  Barber did get 51 yards receiving and put in two touchdowns, one on the ground, but the defense held him to 14 yards and no touchdowns in the first half before the game started to get crazy.  I expect the Eagles to play more like they did in the first half against the Steelers this week, and that is not good for Fast Willie.  I would expect maybe 50 yards and no touchdowns for him.   

-------20 yards - 2 points

WR

Start - Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery
The Jets receivers should have a big game against San Diego defense that was destroyed by Brandon Marshall last week.  The Jets offense has something to prove after last week and I think they both have good games.  I expect more out of Cotchery, but I think both have at least 80 yards and a touchdown.

-------Coles - 75 yards 1 touch - 13 points
-------Cotchery - 76 yards - 7 points

Sit - Torry Holt
This has nothing to do with Seattle, Holt's week three opponent, than it does with St. Louis' offense.  They are putrid away from the friendly confines.  He has one touchdown in his last nine road games and only had one catch for nine yards at Philly week one.  I do not expect much more than 50 yards this week.

-------37 yards - 3 points


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Posted on: September 10, 2008 9:05 pm
Edited on: September 15, 2008 10:58 pm
 

DONT PANIC!!!!!!!

Don't Panic!  It is not only advice for weary space hitchhikers, it is also the best thing for fantasy football owners to do after week 1.  Too often people freak out and dump quality players after a sub-par week one performance.  It is important to understand that players will have tough weeks from time to time and it might be, in this case, your player or players chose to lay an egg in week one.  Players like Braylon Edwards are proven commodities and will produce even though they may have had an off week one.  Last year Edwards started out with a three catch, 49-yard performance in week one and followed it up with a 146 yard and two touchdown performance in week two.  I am not saying he will put up those numbers against the Steelers this week, but I would expect him to have another solid season.

Now to my sits and starts of the week.

STARTS

QB

Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers showed he could manage a game and not make the game losing mistake in week one.  I think he shows that he can move the ball around put up points this week against Detroit.  Detroit is bad, especially against the run, which should give Rodgers a lot of space to throw as Detroit tries different schemes to try and stop the run.  I expect him to throw for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns this week.

---------edited on Monday.  328-3 25 rush and fl.  31 points in my league.

RB

Julius Jones - The injury bug has bitten Seattle harder than any team in the NFL this season.  They are without their top three wide recievers and lost Maurice Morris for the next couple of weeks.  The biggest beneficiary, other than the NFC West, will probably be Julius Jones.  He should get the lion share of the carries for a team that will be forced to run the ball more because of how thin they are at wide reciever.  This week Seattle plays San Fransico, who gave up 100 yards to Edge last week.  I expect Jones to get 80 yards and a touchdown.

---------127 rushing, 14 receiving and a touch. 19 pts

WR

Brandon Marshall - The Chargers last week gave up 247 yards through the air to the Panthers, sans Steve Smith.  That is not good, especially with Denver coming into town sporting the newly formed two-headed monster at wide reciever.  The emergence of Eddie Royal in week one should take pressure off of Marshall as well as motivate him to show he is still the top dog in Denver.  I expect a big game out of Marshall, 100 yards and at least one touchdown.

--------166 yds and a touch 22 pts

Sits

QB

Derek Anderson - After having a rough time in week one against Dallas, the road does not get any easier this week as the Browns play the Steelers.  The Steelers gave up only 200 yards through the air, most of it in garbage time, and picked of Schaub two times in week one.  That defense played very well and I expect them to be psyched up for this big divisional game.  If you have a viable back-up option, I would seriously consider using him.

-------- 166 yards, 6 rushing and 2 int. 2 pts

RB

Jamal Lewis - The Steelers were good against the pass in week one, but even better against the run.  Lewis did not reach 50 total yards in either of the two games against Pittsburgh last year and did not reach the endzone.  I expect that futility to continue this week.

--------38 rush, 28 receiving.  5 pts

WR

Chad Ocho Cinco - Something is wrong with the Bengels offense and it should continue this week against a Titans team that was very good in week one.  He only had 1 reception last week and I would not expect more than 40 yards against Tennessee this week.

--------37 yds. 3 pts


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Posted on: August 20, 2008 7:13 pm
Edited on: August 21, 2008 7:27 am
 

Draft Strategy

I started playing fantasy football when I was twelve-years-old and the first thing I was told was, "Draft running backs in the first two rounds," and for the past ten years that is how I and most successful fantasy football players have approached our Augusts.  That strategy though is changing, quite dramatically and quickly, to one that is foreign to most seasoned players.  With the season that Tom Brady and Randy Moss had last year, there has been a push to draft quarterbacks and wide receivers in the first two rounds.  I believe that is a strategy that can work, but you have to know when to use it.

Numbers do not lie, and the numbers say that only one running back cracked the top ten of the fantasy point total and only two were in the top 20.  If you look solely at the numbers, it would seem a forgone conclusion that you will pick a quarterback, but, until last year, there just was not enough separation between the top quarterbacks and the twelfth an 13th ranked quarterbacks.  Then, Tom Brady happened, and the landscape and draft thought process quickly changed. 

The problem is this, most quarterbacks are not Tom Brady.  In fact, Tom Brady is unlikely to be as good as Tom Brady was last year this year.  The year after Peyton Manning's record breaking season he was not even the top rated quarterback and was only 50 points ahead of the tenth rated passer.  The point is, if you expect Tom Brady or Randy Moss to recreate the season they had last year, you will find yourself sitting pretty at the front of the draft in 2009.

So is Tom Brady worth a first round pick?  Maybe, but it really depends on what the other people in your draft are going to do or where you are in your draft.  If you are one of the last players in the first round in a snake style draft, drafting Tom Brady will be okay because you will be able to pick a running back up in the second round without much of a fall off.  Also, you might draft Brady if you know the other players in your league are easy to spook and you can create a quarterback run.  Other than that, the reality is that you can probably get a quarterback later in the draft that will perform at least in the same ballpark as this year's Brady.  Not to toot my own horn, but I drafted Tony Romo in the tenth round of my draft.  I know that situation is not always going to happen, but you can definitely get a good quarterback in the fourth and fifth round. 

So, however unsexy it is to draft running back, running back to begin your draft, in most situations it is the best strategy you can employ.  Now go off and be boring.

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